shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;8;(4731,0);(0,0);(0,21497);(21499,21497);(21499,0);(16604,0);(16604,14074);(4731,14074)posrelh0posrelv0pib

TEe 109
November 2003

“Projecting When Economic
Cycles Change”

Presented By:

The Institute for Trend Research
alan@ecotrends.org
www.ecotrends.org

ITR

US, New York & the MidAtlantic Annual GSP Growth Rate

9 ——-,

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;34;(21500,0);(21432,0);(21432,375);(21174,375);(21174,4801);(15829,4801);(15829,3286);(15178,3286);(15178,4801);(10617,4801);(10617,9228);(5928,9228);(5928,4801);(1431,4801);(1431,375);(0,375);(0,21500);(390,21500);(390,12772);(7098,12772);(7098,17198);(7818,17198);(7818,18588);(8272,18588);(8272,17198);(9121,17198);(9121,12772);(20780,12772);(20780,17198);(21367,17198);(21367,3919);(21432,3919);(21432,4551);(21500,4551)posrelh0posrelv0pib

6~r~r—————~r—-~

3 I ~ \\ I —b¥J \l I

o I ‘” \.Vf ~

3+——-———~nr————-——-~

~+-._,–.__r_,--.__r–r_,_~-r_._~–._.__.–._,,_.~

1984

1986

1988

1990
U.S.

1992 1994

New York

1996 1998

– • MidAtlantic

2000

2002

ITR

Unemployment Rates

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

II U.S. III New York

2

/

3

12MMT

32

28

24

20

16

12

$9.248

8

4

0

4

·8

’02

03

04

ITR

Company M
Data Trends

00

’01

-2+-~—-~-~_r–_+-_+-~—-~-r___+

4

/

3MMT
8

7

6

5

4

3

2

o

1

12MMT

5

ITR

US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product

3112 RatesofChange

116

116

112

112

108

108

104

104

100

100

96

96

92

GDP

92

USIP

88

88

80

82

’84

86

’88

‘90

’92

’94

’96

’98

00

02

04

96

97

’98

99

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;10;(3809,0);(0,0);(0,20598);(8216,20598);(8216,21500);(21499,21500);(21499,10598);(5775,10598);(5775,11895);(3809,11895)posrelh0posrelv0pib

ITR

GOODS & SERVICES AS A PERCENT OF GDP (real)

Services

Goods

40~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~rl

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

/

RA TE-OF-CHANGE

ITR 7

ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 10103
ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 910102

– 1112

3MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 10103
3MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 10/02

– 3112

ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 10/03

AL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 10102

– 12112

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6

U~;

8

I
I
I
I
I

I
I

ITR

US Total Industrial Production
12112 Rateof-Change

130

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;14;(21202,0);(0,0);(0,21496);(590,21496);(590,10632);(1702,10632);(1702,13491);(2517,13491);(2517,10632);(3336,10632);(3336,14747);(21500,14747);(21500,11317);(21202,11317)posrelh0posrelv0pib

130

120

110

100 II • 1/ ‘I” \I \ I-\A I – “H \ 1′+100

90

80

70:‘:~~:,~~’–‘-‘-‘–‘-‘–‘-‘–‘-‘-‘–‘-‘–

1950 1955 -,-,-170

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

1995 2000 2005

120

110

90

80

/

Isource: ITR’s EcoTrendsl

ITR

US Total Industrial Production
12/12 RateofChange

130

120

110

100

90

80

ro ro

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

Isource: ITRs EcoTrendsl

130

120

110

100

90

80

9

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;4;(21462,0);(0,0);(0,21499);(21462,21499)posrelh0posrelv0pib

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;4;(21486,0);(0,0);(0,21500);(21486,21500)posrelh0posrelv0pib

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;4;(21488,0);(0,0);(0,21400);(21488,21400)posrelh0posrelv0pib

ITR

10

US Industrial Production Index

Forecast Through December 2003

12/12 Rate-of-Change

115

115

110

110

105

105

100

100

95

Dee 1997: 105.8-

106.2

95

Dee 1998: 103.4-

104.6

90 +

Dee 1999: 102.8

104.0

+ 90

Dee 2000: 103.6

104.4

Dee 2001: 100.5-

101.4

85 +

Dee 2002:

96.9 –

97.8

+ 85

Dee 2003: 103.9-

104.9

80L

~80

’86

88

’90

’92

’94

’96

’98

00

02

04

ISource: ITR’s EcoTrendsl

/

–,

11

ITR

US Industrial Production Index

Forecast Through December 2004

Annual Average Index

140 I

I 140

130

t

130

120 +

t

t

120

110 t

/

.~

110

100

100

90

90

Dee 2003:

-0.4

to 0.4

80 +

./

Dee 2004:

3.6

to 4.6

+ 80

Dee 2005:

1.0

to 2.0

Dee 2006:

2.1

to 3.3

70t::

Dee 2007:

3.5

to 51~70

60

,– 60

86

88

’90

’92

94

96

’98

’00

02

04

’06

’08

ISource: ITR’s EcoTrendsl

• •• ~,I~,

ITR

Company M to US Industrial Production
12112 RatesofChange

Sales

Index

108

107

106

105

104

103

102

101

100

99

98

97

96

95

02

03

04

260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120

100 I A I V VU

80 1.0 I

60 + Sales

40 + US Production

20 __

o

97

’98

’99

00

’01

/

ITR

Co. L to US Industrial Production
12112 Ratesof-Change

Sales

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

94

Sales

Index

112

109

106

103

100

97

94

91

88

’02

03

’04

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;6;(21498,0);(0,0);(0,13518);(11376,13518);(11376,21492);(21498,21492)posrelh0posrelv0pib

US Production

‘95

96

97

’98

‘99

‘00

01

12

13

….

II

ITR

“All a statesman can do is to listen to the footsteps of God as
he walks through history, and get hold of the hem of His cloak
and walk with Him a few steps of the way.”

Otto yon Bismarck

” … But most contemporary politicians or business executives
do not consider that they are walking through history. Is it
any wonder, then, that few of them make history?”

Henry Kissinger

14

/

15 I .~. ?;: ;UQ. (;~.

0/~~~(”

sy~.

(

ITR

Four Phases

Expansion?

Bankrupt?

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Phase A –Phase B

Phase C Phase D

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2) rr+>: T
~eJlVvV

I/-U c;. ;‘ ~ ::;:: ~

-~ .

&,-‘

j/oV
f/1>

?6’6

· .’~

ITR

Management Objectives:

Phase Late D • Recession I Early A ~ Early Recovery

16

I

I

I

I

I

/

ITR

Prepare training programs

Negotiate union contracts if possible

Develop advertising & marketing programs

Enter or Renegotiate into long-term leases

Concentrate on cost reduction programs

Look for additional vendors

Capital expenditures & acquisitions considered in
light of market-by-market potential

Management Objectives:

Phase Late A – Recovery:

Start to phase out marginal opportunities

Build inventories in the system

Continue placing capital equipment orders

Hire “top” people

Implement training programs

Add sales staff

Introduce new product lines

Begin advertising and sales promotions

Implement plans for facilities’ expansion

Update standard costs

If you haven’t
already

Early 03

17

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

/

ITR·

Management Objectives:

18

Phase Early B – Gr()wth~

I. Accelerate training

Continue to build inventory

Increase prices

Find the answers to “what next”

2003 – 2004

Consider outside manufacturing sources if internal resources

becoming tight

Check the process flow for possible future bottlenecks

Open distribution centers

Use improved cash flow for corporate governance.

ITR

Management Objectives:

Phase Late B Early C – Prosperity:.

1. Stay in stock

20041 and again
in 2008

2. Penetrate new OEM accounts

Develop plan for lower activity in traditional, mature markets

Begin missionary efforts into new markets

Consider taking on subcontract work if the backside of the cycle looks

recessionary

Freeze all expansion plans

Spin off undesirable operations

Stay realistic – beware linear budgets

Consider selling the business in a climate of maximum goodwill”

19

I

20

I

ITR

Management Objectives:

I

/

Phase Late C – \Varning:

Begin work force reductions

Reduce advertising

Cut training

Weed out inferior products

Reduce inventories

2005

Avoid long-term purchase commitments – late in the price cycle

Set budget reduction goals by dept.

Encourage distributors to decrease inventory

Concentrate on cash and the balance sheet

DeEmphasize commodity products/services in anticipation of
diminishing margins

ITR

Management Objectives:

21

I

I

I

I

I

I

Phase Early D – Recession:

1. Continue force reduction

Reduce virtually all advertising

Continue to avoid longterm purchase commitments

Review all lease agreements

Increase the requirements for justification of capital equipment

Eliminate all overtime

7. Reduce overhead labor

Combine departments with like capabilities and reduce management

Select targets of opportunity where price will get the business

I

I

ITR US Industrial Production to Paper & Products Production

12112 Rates-of-Change

Index

Production

108

108

106

106

104

104

102

102

100

100

98

98

USIP

96

96

Paper Production

w W

90 91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

22

/

ITR

US Industrial Production to Printing Production Index
12112 Rates-of-Change

115

110

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;8;(21499,0);(0,0);(0,20858);(20717,20858);(20717,21493);(21238,21493);(21238,11390);(21499,11390)posrelh0posrelv0pib

23

105

100

95

90

Index

Printing

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

115

/

ITR

US Industrial Production Index to Foods Production
12112 RatesofChange

i

i

24

I

Index
120

Production
108

I

106

115

USIP

90+L. ~F~OrOO~P~rOO~~~li~on~-—-_,r_—-._—--._~96

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

I

ITR

US Industrial Production to Heavy Duty Truck Production
12112 RatesofChange

Trucks

Index

200

115

180

112

160

109

140

106

120

103

100

100

80

97

60

94

40

91

’80

’82

84

86

’88

’90

’92

’94

’96

’98

00

’02

04

2S

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

ITR US Industrial Production to Fabricated Metal Products Production
12/12 RatesofChange

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

1970

1975

1980

/

USIP

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

2000

2005

26

27

Fabricated Metals

76

1990

1995

1985

ITR

US Industrial Production to Plastics Materials Production
12/12 Rates-ofChange

Production
148

Index

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

1970

1975

1980

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;6;(21499,0);(20653,0);(20653,188);(0,188);(0,21494);(21499,21494)posrelh0posrelv0pib

USIP

Production

+r–‘r-,-‘—‘-r—,—,,–~64

1990

1985

1995

2000

2005

28

I

ITR

US Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment
12112 RatesofChange

Investment
124

I

I

I

i

88

i

/

I

Index
116

92

USiP

imestment

88+,~~—,—-,—,—,—.–.--.,~–~-+82

’80 ’82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 ’98 00 ‘02 ‘04

Index

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

1970

1975

Production

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

2000

2005

29

ITR US Industrial Production to Communication Equipment Production
12/12 Rates-ofChange

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;8;(21497,0);(0,0);(0,20743);(4253,20743);(4253,19091);(20397,19091);(20397,21495);(21497,21495)posrelh0posrelv0pib

Production

1980

1985

1990

1995

/

ITR

US Industrial Production to Hospital Expenditures
12/12 Rates-ofChange

Index
112

Expenditures
120

109

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;18;(20700,0);(1043,0);(1043,3378);(1410,3378);(1410,12802);(0,12802);(0,14733);(982,14733);(982,21496);(4175,21496);(4175,16784);(17689,16784);(17689,20049);(19103,20049);(19103,14733);(21500,14733);(21500,13890);(20700,13890)posrelh0posrelv0pib

106 .

103

97

us IP

Hospital Expenditures

94+,-,-,,-,-,-,-,-,,-,,,,-,,–,-,,-,,-,,-,-,-,+90

80 82

84 86 ’88 ’90 92 94 96 98 00 ’02 ’04

ITR

31

Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders

Billions of $

R-O-C

MMT

120

1/12

Sep ‘00

1450

105.2

102.7

100

1250

80

1050

Mar’02

Dee 00

60

850

$663.4

40

650

20

450

94

’95

’96

97

98

99

00

’01

02

‘03

04

30

115

110

105

9~

ITR

Company M to Durable Goods New Orders (W/O Aircraft)
12112 Rates-of-Change

32

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;10;(21498,0);(19326,0);(19326,1019);(0,1019);(0,14717);(13678,14717);(13678,21496);(20193,21496);(20193,8825);(21498,8825)posrelh0posrelv0pib

DURABLE GOODS

Sales

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

’97

/

Sales

98

99

’00

’01

Goods

118

115

112

109

106

103

100

97

94

91

88

85

02

’03

ITR

Durable Goods New Orders to Durable Goods Inventories
Ratesof-Change

33

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;4;(21496,0);(0,0);(0,21498);(21496,21498)posrelh0posrelv0pib

Orders 12/12

Inventories 1112

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

75

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

75

2000

2005

JTR

Short-Term Interest Rates

R-O-C
205

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;16;(21498,0);(0,0);(0,7562);(61,7562);(61,19375);(862,19375);(862,18974);(12665,18974);(12665,21497);(18843,21497);(18843,11543);(20880,11543);(20880,19375);(21189,19375);(21189,10479);(21498,10479)posrelh0posrelv0pib

1.20

-75 t,,-—-,—-,–,,–-,-,–-,.-,rr—-,+ 0

90 91 ’92 93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ‘97 ‘98 99 ‘~O 01 ’02 03 ’04

Isource: ITR‘s EcoTreudsl

/

ITR

EASIER SAID THAN KNOWN

Greenspan hints at interest rate cutNashville Banner

Change unlikely in interest rates: Greenspan dampens speculation on cut” –

Baltimore Sun

“Cautious Greenspan hints at a cut in rates” – Newark Star Ledger

Greenspan: little risk of recessionUSA Today

“Greenspan: Uncertainty aboundsNH Union Leader

“If I say something which you understand fully in this regard”, he told a Senator, “I
probably made a mistake” – Associated Press

34

MMA
24

35

/

ITR

Interest Rate Comparison

1995

2000

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2005

18+——–~~———————————+
16+————.~H_————————-——_+

10+~.~~~~~~H~~_r——–—-_+
8~_+~hr~~—–~~~~~~~~~~L~_+

0+’-,,,,,,-,,,,-,,,-,,-,,-,,-,,-,,-,,-,,,,,,-,,-,,_+

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

PRIME RATE

FUND RATE

ITR

Federal Funds Target Rate to the US Economy

FFUNDS
200

NEW ORDERS
140

175

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;16;(20639,0);(857,0);(857,10351);(0,10351);(0,11463);(857,11463);(857,20703);(4850,20703);(4850,17352);(13082,17352);(13082,21500);(20639,21500);(20639,11463);(21500,11463);(21500,10351);(20639,10351)posrelh0posrelv0pib

150

125

75

50

FFUNDS

NEW ORDERS

25 +“,-,-“,-“”,,-“,,–rr,-,–-“,-“r-r,-“”,-,,,,,+ 70

1970

2000

2005

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

36

37

130

120

110

90

80

ITR

US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices
12112 Rates-of-Change

Index
115

Bonds
130

Corporate Bonds

85 +,,,,,-,–,-,,-.,.,-—--,,–,70

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[source: ITR’s Ecoirendsl

/

M2 Money Supply
Trillions of 82$

ITR

R-O-C

110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

’93

‘94

MMA

4.2

4.0

105.9

3.8

104.8

3.6

3.4

$3.226

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

-,-

22

95

96

’97

’98

99

00

01

02

03

’04

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;6;(21497,0);(0,0);(0,21496);(16704,21496);(16704,14494);(21497,14494)posrelh0posrelv0pib

[source: ITRs EcoTrends[

38

39

ITR

40

Company M to M2 Money Supply

12/12 Rates-ofChange

240

114

220

n

112

200

110

180

108

160

106

140

104

120

102

100

100

80

98

60

96

40

Sales

94

20

Money

92

0

90

’97

’98

’99

00

’01

’02

’03

/

ITR

R-OC

104

103

102

101

100

99

98

97

96

95

94

93

’90

’91

U.S. Composite Leading Indicator
1996 = 100

MMA
145

1112

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;12;(18989,0);(6306,0);(6306,1864);(0,1864);(0,21496);(18409,21496);(18409,8201);(21497,8201);(21497,7327);(18858,7327);(18858,2233);(18989,2233)posrelh0posrelv0pib

140
102.2 135

100.8

120
115
11\.3 110

105
100
95

+,-,,,,,,—,,–,–,–,,,+ 90

92 ’93 ’94 ’95 96 97 ’98 ’99 00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Isource: ITRs ECOTrendsl

41

130

ITR

Purchasing Managers Index
ISM

42

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;8;(864,0);(0,0);(0,21495);(21498,21495);(21498,0);(20691,0);(20691,312);(864,312)posrelh0posrelv0pib

90 ’91 92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 00 01 02 03 04

ISource: ITR‘s EcoTrendsl

ITR

43

Company M

to Purchasing Managers Index

Rates-ofChange

240

135

220

130

200

125

180

120

160

115

\,

140

110

120

105

100

100

80

95

60

90

40

85

20

U

80

0

75

97

98

99

’00

01

02

’03

/

/

44

lTR

ITR Leading Indicator

120

120

115

115

110

110

105

105

100

100

95

95

90

90

90 91 92 93 ‘94 ‘95 ’96 97 ‘98 ’99 ’00 01 ’02 ‘03 ‘04

Isource: ITR‘s EcoTrcDdsl

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;14;(13849,0);(855,0);(855,11449);(0,11449);(0,12851);(855,12851);(855,21495);(19586,21495);(19586,12851);(21499,12851);(21499,11449);(20046,11449);(20046,3809);(13849,3809)posrelh0posrelv0pib

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;4;(21500,0);(0,0);(0,21489);(21500,21489)posrelh0posrelv0pib

ITR

RO-C
145

130

115

85

70

55

40

25

Stock Prices Index
Index, 1941 43 = 10

Nay ’99

Oct 00

45

MMA

3800

3400

115.2

3000

2600

88.6

2200

1800

1400

929.0

1000

600

10+,,,-,–,,-,-,–,,–,—,-.,–,,+200

90 91 92 ‘93 94 ‘95 96 ‘97 98 99 00 ’01 ’02 ‘03 ’04

ISource:ITRs EcoTrendsl

ITR

Stock Prices Index
12/12 Rateof-Change

46

150

150

shapeType75fBehindDocument1pWrapPolygonVertices8;16;(20612,0);(885,0);(885,12852);(0,12852);(0,13611);(885,13611);(885,20741);(251,20741);(251,21495);(21246,21495);(21246,20741);(20612,20741);(20612,13611);(21497,13611);(21497,12852);(20612,12852)posrelh0posrelv0pib

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

90

90

80

80

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Isource: ITR’s EcoTrendsl

/

ITR

Stock Prices Index to Total Retail Sales

47

12/12 Rates-of-Change

Stocks

Retail Sales

150

110

140

108

130

106

120

104

110

102

100

100

90

98

Stocks

80

96

Retail Sales

70

94

’80

82

’84

86

’88

’90

’92

’94

’96

98

00

’02

’04

48

Oct ’00

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

ITR

Stock Prices Index
S&P 500, 1941-43 = 10

1600

3MMA

12MMA

1975 1980

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Isource: ITR‘s EcoTrendsl

/

1200

Bonds?

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1400

Five consecutive years double digit growth
Individual Stocks

1000

Real Estate

800

600

400

200

O+~””’”””TT”,,,,,,,,,,,,,-,rr+O

1960 1965 1970

ITR

49

New Homes Sales Median Price to Stock Prices Index

Data Trends

Homes

Prices

220

1500

200

1350

180

New Homes

1200

160

Stock Prices Index

1050

140

900

120

750

100

600

80

450

60

300

40

150

20

0

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Sales

2.6

2.4

22

2.0

\.

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

-,–

1.0

02

’04

lTR

Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles

50

MMT

2.8

2.6

2.4

104.2

103.3

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.630

1.6

1.4

1.2

R-O-C
108

Feb ‘00

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Dee ‘01

92 +-.-,—–.—-,,-.,-–,–-,,-..——.—-,-+ 0.8

’90 91 92 ‘93 94 95 96 97 98 99 ’00 01 ’02 ’03 04

Isource:ITR‘s EcoTrendsl

/

ITR

Consumer Expectations and Retail Sales

Expectations
120

110

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100

90

80

70

60

EXPECTATIONS

RETAIL SALES

50

40+-.—.—-,-.–.-.–.-....--.–.,

92

’90

94

’96

98

00

1.0

51

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ITR

Housing Starts (1/12)

52

1oo—————————–———— 100

75++—–—-+75

50+1r—++~r_-+_+_~-50

New York

Mid Atlantic

/

1996

1997

1998
U.S.

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

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ITR

53

Housing Starts

Millions of Units

R-O-C

MMT

145

3.3

130

3.0

115

1l1.O

2.7

107.2

100

2.4

85

2.1

70

1.764

1.8

55

1.5

40

1.2

25

0.9

10 +,,-,,--,,–,——,–,.,.–.—–.+ 0.6

90 91 92 93 94 95 ‘96 ’97 98 ‘99 00 ’01 02 ‘03 ‘04

Isource: ITRs EcoTrendsl

ITR

Housing Starts to Corporate Bond Prices
12112 Rates-of-Change

54

Bonds
140

Housing
180

160

130

60

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80

Housing

70+.–.–..-...–,,-,,-,–,–,,,,,–.-,~40

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

55

Isource: ITR‘s .ECOTrendsl

130

120

110

90

80

70

60

/

ITR

Housing Starts to Appliance Market Production
12/12 Ratesof-Change

Starts
120

Production
140

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115

110

105

95

90

85

Starts

Appliance Production

80

’90 ’91 ’92 93 ’94 95 ’96 97 98 99 ’00 ’01 02 03 04

ITR

56

Construction Markets

12112 Rates-of-Change

130

130

120

120

i”\

.. ,

110

.: ..

:~\

110

.

100

100

90

90

80

Office Buildings

80

Public Construction

70

– – – Private Educational Buildings

70

60

60

90

91

92

93

‘94

95

96

97

98

99

’00

01

’02

03

04

/

ITR

FEDERAL BUDGET ANALYSIS

SURPLUS
300

PERCENT
30

200

100

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-100

SURPLUS – BILS. OF $

200

PERCENT OF GDP

·300++-~~1–++--~r1--++-~r~+++r~~++-+30

1900 1910

1920

1930 1940

1950

1960 1970

1980 1990 2000

57

20

10

10

·20

TTR

58

Annual Federal Deficit History

Billions of Dollars

320

320

280

280

240

240

200

200

160

160

120

120

80

80

40

40

Civil War

0

0

-40

40

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

/

ITR Fed. Government Cash Account to US Industrial Production Index
Data Trends

Index

Cash
480

165

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150

135

Index Annual Averaqe

120

Cash Bils. Of $ Monthly

105

90

75

60

45

30

15

o

-15 +.,.—-,,–.—--,-,—-,-–,-,.-~~,_-_,_–_,__, -240

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

59

420

360

300

240

180

120

60

o

60

-120

-180

ITR National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods N.O.

12/12 Rates-of Change

Expe nditures

120

116

112

108

104

100

96

92

88

1970

1975

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Expenditures

Orders

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

/

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32.5

~.~

~ ~i1S J,}us 1, Current Prices
~ f percft off0r1d GDP

2\ 2.0 1.5 1.5

ITR

Orders
175

60

160

145

130

115

85

70

61

ITR

/

ITR

Things You Ought To Know About China

Banking Crisis

Underfunded Welfare Liabilities

Incredible Pension Liabilities
Deficit – Public Debt

Negative Demographics

High Unemployment civil unrest

7 ofthe 10 most polluted cities
Environmental laws selectively applied

Public Debt as a percent of GDP for 2002

1 ••• 1 _ — —. -l

I

oUS

I I

CD France

I

• Germany •••••••••
I

II Canada

I

62

63

CD Italy

o China

OJapan

(‘0’:~‘:?.(‘,., .. ···’;::;·\iif~i ” .i~.J5·:;jJ

I I

I

1

I

I

o

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

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I

ITR

lTR

Needed:.

True Commercial Banking
Independent Judiciary

True Corporate Profitability
Ba~kruptcy

The WTO and YOU

Exports by Nation
Billions of US Dollars

Source: IMFIWPO

64

6S

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$974.1

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Q US

II Germany

o Japan

o UK II France [J China II Italy 0 Canada

 

1 of 2The Insitiute for Trend Research – Projecting When Economic